Something brewing in the Gulf?
Something interesting could be developing in the Gulf of Mexico. There certainly is a lot of cloudiness for late September and if computer models are right, low pressure could form there over the weekend. However, there is considerable disagreement about what could form and where.
The NAM model depicts a low pressure center heading toward southern Louisiana by Monday evening:
The GFS model, however places the low near the Florida panhandle by Monday evening:
While a low in the Gulf may at first look menacing; not all of the necessary ingredients are present to allow the “J” named storm (Joaquin) to form – at least in the Gulf. Temperatures there are still warm there; at or above the requisite 80° degree (>27°Celsius) threshold:
That environment could allow the low pressure to deepen, but upper level winds aloft aren’t conducive for developing. Typically, we look for high pressure and weak winds aloft. However, the current environment has low pressure off the upper Texas coast and a general southerly wind aloft. This will guide the low inland, where it will likely spread a great deal of rain across parts of the southeast.
As always, however, whenever low pressure is in the Gulf, it needs to be watched carefully. Stay alert and aware if you live along the Gulf coast.